Virus Statistics, Scotland and the South Africa Connection

 Ever since the British Empire annexed the Cape Colony from the Dutch during the Napoleonic Wars there has been a close connection between Scotland and South Africa. The colonial club in Cape Town is called Kelvingrove while James Douglas Logan from the Borders established Matjiesfontein in the Karoo semi-desert as the pre-eminent resort in the Empire in the 1890s, welcoming the likes of Rudyard Kipling, Cecil Rhodes and Olive Schreiner. Jimmy Logan’s home of Tweedside Lodge was the first in South Africa to have flushing indoor toilets, electricity and a private telephone. 

The Clerk of Works for the Union Buildings in Pretoria, the HQ of the South African Government and where Nelson Mandela had his office, was the Gaelic poet Duncan Livingstone, whose manuscripts are in the South African library in Cape Town. The coldest place in South Africa is the town of Sutherland in the Karoo with a record temperature of -20.1 C. The Free Church Minister Andrew Murray sorted out the Dutch Kerk into the Dutch Reformed Kerk on proper Free Presbyterian lines, and inadvertently contributed to apartheid.

The University of Cape Town (UCT) is today a World Top 100 academic institution but started as the South African College in 1829. In its early days there was such a large proportion of the staff that were Scottish that it was known as the Scottish Mission to the Cape. Indeed, to this day the South African education system is a copy of Scotland with 6-7 subjects taken for University Entrance and a four-year Honours Degree. 

The Scottish Currency Group is leading the campaign for an Indy Scotland to have its own currency as soon as practicable, so within a couple of months, of Independence Day. As part of that we set up reservebank.scot to provide information on currency and the new central bank of Scotland. 

We came across Leen Remmelzwaal, a Ph.D. student at UCT, three weeks ago. He is in the Department of Engineering, carrying out research in the field of computational neuroscience. He was shocked about how little detailed statistical information was available in South Africa on the spread of the pandemic and therefore applied his skill to develop a dedicated web site which was launched on March 23rd. Up until 27th May South Africa has recorded 552 deaths and, compared to the UK, has had an exemplary campaign against the virus. South Africa had carried out 634,000 tests compared to the 107,000 in Scotland. 

This time the flow is reversed to be from South Africa to Scotland, as we seized the opportunity to add a live statistics section to the site. In only a week, with support from XYZ Maps in Dalkeith – makers of the Indy Scotland maps, Leen has created a Scottish corona virus stats portal that is now available at www.reservebank.scot/statistics. This is not just about the virus but also about the wider socio-economic impact. It is updated daily and provides a service to Scots where they can easily check on progress in containing the virus and check on the wider impact. Scotland is the first country in Europe to be part of Leen’s corona virus dashboard, but you can access similar data for South Africa, and many other countries.

See Statistics page: Figure 1 shows the day-by-day progress of the virus from the first case across the Scotland. We are currently in a declining phase with new cases down to 55 (27th May) from a peak of 430 on March 31st. Total deaths with a confirmed positive test are 2,304 and were running at 13 deaths per day. The problem of reporting on deaths at the weekend is obvious from the dip in the graph every seven days.

Figure 2 shows the breakdown by Health Board. The cities of the Central Belt have been the hotspot with 3,916 cases in Greater Glasgow & Clyde and 2,685 in Lothian, versus 6 in the Western Isles and 54 in Shetland. Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles have had no new cases since May 1st. This clearly suggests that easing lockdown should proceed on a geographical basis so long as the current ban on travel to the Islands is maintained. That could in due course be extended to other regions that show sustained absence of new cases so long as travel into those regions is curtailed or incomers tested.

Figure 3 demonstrates the socio-economic impact. The FTSE 100 / FTSE 250 have recovered some ground from their 18/19th March nadir, though the market is still way below late January levels. Similarly, with the Pound / Dollar and Pound / Euro exchange rates. The Bank of England base interest rate remains at a 350 year low of 0.1%.

We will be adding more data to www.reservebank.scot/statistics over the next few weeks including Deaths data by Council, Scottish monthly unemployment data, benefit claims, crime statistics, UK government borrowing and as much else as we can obtain. It is, though, disappointing to note that much of the data you would need to accurately track and monitor the Scottish economy is only available quarterly and in many cases months if not longer after the event. Yet another reason why we need a proper Statistics Scotland service.

References:

James Douglas Logan, the Laird of Matjiesfontein: https://www.cricketcountry.com/articles/james-douglas-logan-the-laird-of-matjiesfontein-684121.

South Africa coldest place: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutherland,_Northern_Cape.

Leen Remmelzwaal: https://www.news.uct.ac.za/article/-2020-04-17-covid-19-dashboard-by-and-for-south-africans.

Scottish Reserve Bank Motion

Musselburgh SNP Branch approved the Scottish Reserve Bank Motion for submission to the Agenda Committee for SNP Conference at their meeting on Tuesday 3rd March. They become a co-sponsor along with Angus Brendan MacNeil MP. Dalkeith & District SNP Branch are the lead proposers and approved it in January.

Forthcoming Talks by Dr Tim Rideout

Please note that all talks have been discontinued in line with the Scottish Government's Covid-19 recommendations.

• Broxburn SNP, Thursday 5th March, Strathbrock Partnership Centre, 189A W Main St, Broxburn EH52 5LH from 7pm
  
• Trossachs & Teith SNP, Wednesday 11th March at 7pm in the Kirk Hall, Callander.
• Penicuik SNP, Tuesday 24th March at 7pm in Penicuik.
• Bathgate SNP / Linlithgow SNP CA, Monday 13th April at 7.30 pm Glenmavis Bowling Club, Torphichen Street, Bathgate EH48 4HH.
• YES Perth City, Thursday 16th April at 7pm in the Murray Room, Salutation Hotel, Perth.

Dr Tim Rideout on ‘A Currency for Scotland’ with a Q&A and a chance to play The Scottish Currency Game - please bring along £5 or £10.

Past Talks

• YES Highland, Spectrum Centre, Inverness on 24th June at 7pm. YES Dunfermline, 6th August at 7pm.
  
• YES2 Stonehaven & Mearns, 1pm Stonehaven on 18th August. YES Ardrossan, 27th August at 7pm.
• YES Annandale, Lockerbie Town Hall on August 29th at 7.00pm. YES Edinburgh West, Tuesday 3rd Sept at 7.00pm.
• Dalkeith & District SNP, Dalkeith on Tuesday 17th Sept at 7.00pm. YES Edinburgh South, Liberton on Thursday 19th Sept at 7.00pm. YES Dunfermline, Saturday 21st September.
• SNP Fort William / YES Lochaber, Fort William on Thursday September 26th. The talk will start at 7.30pm in Kilmallie Community Centre, Station Road, Corpach.
• SNP Stornoway / Lewis, Stornoway on Friday September 27th. At 7.30pm in the County Hotel, Stornoway.
• Pensioners for YES (Edinburgh) on Tuesday October 1st, SNP St Andrew’s Rooms, North St Andrew Street, Edinburgh at 2pm.
• AYE Aberdeen on Monday October 7th, The Station Hotel, 78 Guild Street, Aberdeen at 7pm
• SNP Fochabers and Moray, on Tuesday October 8th. The Institute, Fochabers, IV32 7EP. 7.00-9.30pm. Refreshments provided.
• Kirkcaldy YES Hub on Tuesday 22nd October. 7.30pm at 20 Hunter St, KY1 1ED YES Dumfries, Friday November 1st.
• YES Berwickshire, Thursday 7th November at 7pm in Duns. Stirling Uni Students, Monday 18th November.
• Falkirk for Indy, Falkirk Golf Club on Monday Dec 9th at 7.00 pm
• YES Musselburgh, Brunton Theatre Esk Room on Thursday 6th February at 7.00pm. YES Kinross-shire, 7.45pm on Wednesday 12th February, The Guide Hall, Milnathort.
• Montrose SNP, 7pm on Thursday 20th February at the George Hotel, Montrose.
• YES Skye, Aros Community Theatre, Viewfield Road, Port Righ (Portree) IV51 9EU from 11am to 1pm on Saturday 29th February.

Supporting Statement

SNP SPRING CONFERENCE 2020

1. Conference notes that at the April 2019 Conference it was resolved that an SNP Government should take the steps necessary to introduce a Scottish currency as soon as practicable after a vote for independence with the aim that the currency be ready for introduction as soon as practicable after Independence Day.

2. Conference believes that an SNP Government should, therefore, be prepared for and take the following step to implement the policy: Draft a Bill and have it ready to introduce to the Scottish Parliament shortly after a vote for independence to authorise the establishment of the Scottish Central Bank.

3. The principles of the Bill should include:

a. That the Central Bank will be named the Scottish Reserve Bank.

b. That the bank will have its headquarters in Edinburgh.

c. That the bank will be wholly owned by the Scottish Treasury and will have no

share capital or external investors.

d. That the bank will be headed by a President and Directors appointed by the

Scottish Parliament and at all times answerable to the Parliament.

e. That the bank should be charged with the task of preparing for and introducing a

Scottish currency shortly after independence.

f. That the Scottish Parliament will decide on and instruct the bank as to the name

for the Scottish currency.

g. That the bank should be instructed from time to time as to the monetary and

other policies to be pursued, these instructions to be from the Scottish

Government and as agreed by the Scottish Parliament.

h. That the bank will hold and administer the Treasury accounts.

i. That the bank may provide loan or overdraft facilities as deemed appropriate by

the Directors in fulfilment of the policies prescribed by Parliament.

j. That the bank will hold and manage the Foreign Reserves of Scotland on behalf

of the Treasury.

k. That the bank will be responsible for issuing Banking Licences to any companies

that wish to provide banking services in Scotland. Any company that does wish to provide such services will require a Scottish Banking Licence and will be required to submit itself to the supervision of the Central Bank.

4. Conference further notes that three of the traditional Scottish clearing banks currently issue their own collateralised bank notes. Conference agrees that this is a long-standing historic tradition that both provides a small commercial advantage to the banks and is appreciated by both Scots and visitors as a distinctive feature of the country. Conference therefore resolves that an SNP Government should ensure that it continues to be possible for any commercial bank in Scotland that wishes to issue collateralised bank notes to be able to do so. This to be subject to the agreement of the Central Bank and with the deposit of a 100% bond against the value of any such collateralised notes in circulation at the Central Bank at all times.

In April 2019 the SNP Conference voted in favour of committing an SNP government to introduce a Scottish currency as soon as practicable after Independence. In order to do that a central bank for Scotland needs to be created and charged with introducing and then managing that currency. This motion instructs an SNP government (and / or the Party) to ensure that the necessary bill to establish the central bank is drafted and ready to introduce in parliament shortly after a successful vote in favour of independence. Even though it is generally expected that there will be a transition period of around two years before independence actually occurs, time will be of the essence. Taking a bill through all the stages at Holyrood can take six months or more, while time will also be required to recruit initial staff and get started on preparations for the new currency. It is therefore imperative to have the enabling legislation drafted in advance to avoid wasting valuable time after an independence vote.

The motion also sets up the principles that should be adhered to. These include naming the central bank as the Scottish Reserve Bank. This is a sensible name as central banks hold the reserves of the commercial banks and the state and many central banks around the world are named ‘Reserve’, for example South African Reserve Bank. While it is highly desirable that the new ministries should be spread out around Scotland (for example the Ministry of Energy might logically have an HQ in Aberdeen), Edinburgh is the centre of the finance industry and it would be the logical location for the central bank. The central bank is an integral part of government and the principles therefore cover the bank being fully owned by the state via the Treasury, with no private capital, external shareholders or other investors. The bank is the source of the currency and as such does not require any capital (though it will require sterling funding of the running costs up to the date when the new currency is launched). Given the importance of the national currency, the stability of it, and the effects of monetary and other policy that would be pursued by the central bank then it is entirely right and proper that the President and Directors of the central bank should be fully answerable and accountable to Parliament and Ministers at all times. Further it should always be Parliament and Ministers that instruct the bank as to the monetary and other policies to be pursued. The neo-liberal fetish that central banks should somehow be exempt from democratic control and that bankers should be left in charge of the economy is a dangerous fantasy all too open to manipulation by vested interests. The remaining principles are essentially technical and simply provide that the central bank will hold the government accounts and manage the foreign reserves on behalf of the Treasury. As is standard practice anyone wishing to run a bank in Scotland will require to be licensed and regulated by the central bank.

Finally, three commercial banks in Scotland currently issue their own very popular bank notes. These are appreciated by citizens and visitors alike, provide a modest source of revenue to the banks concerned, and add to the uniqueness of Scotland. The motion provides that the government vis the central bank should ensure that these banks (and any others that wish to do so) should be allowed to continue to issue their own bank notes denominated in the new Scottish currency subject to the deposit of full collateral backing at the central bank and such regulations as the central bank requires to ensure their safety, security, etc.

Response to criticism of SNP Midlothian Candidate

In response to a letter in Midlothian View criticising the SNP candidate for Midlothian, Owen Thompson, this letter has been published :

Nial Stewart is wrong and Owen Thompson is correct. The Scottish Government does receive a fraction of the tax collected in Scotland. To be specific from the 2019 GERS Guesstimates then Scottish tax revenue was estimated at £62.7 billion. The Scottish Government budget, including local authorities, was some £43.2 billion, which means that Holyrood got back some 68.9% of what was collected in Scotland. Whether what Westminster claims to spend on our behalf is really to our benefit is of course a good question. How much benefit do we get from Foreign Office spending when they decline to assist our First Minister on overseas visits? 

Crossrail, restoration of the House of Parliament and Buck House, HS2, etc? Billions on Trident and various military gambits, interest on the debts run up by the UK when Scotland over the last 30 years hasn’t had any debts?

More fundamentally, the assumption underlying Nial’s letter is that a state deficit is bad. This is actually wrong as the state is the issuer of the money supply and for us as the citizens to actually have any money at all requires that the state runs a deficit. It is double entry accounting so a state deficit is ipso facto a private sector surplus (surely good – who wants a private sector deficit?). 

In normal circumstances, unless there is an inflation problem and the economy is over-heating, then the state can and SHOULD run a deficit. It should run whatever deficit is necessary to achieve full employment. The cycle of money is that the state creates it by spending, it circulates around the economy and the state takes it back and destroys it via tax. 

The entire concept of ‘taxpayers money’ is a right wing re-framing exercise from the 1980s designed to privatise ‘public funds’ and shrink the state to suit a neo-liberal right wing agenda. For more information, you can refer to reservebank.scot.