SCOTLAND'S ECONOMY
"An independent Scotland could expect to start with healthier state finances than the rest of the UK," says The Financial Times
The economy underpins every aspect of Scotland’s future. The choices that any independent Scottish Government makes and whether those choices will be easier or harder than those faced by a devolved Scottish Government will be dictated by how much money is available.
For that reason, the UK government and the No campaign desperately want you to believe that Scotland would be poorer as an independent country and that it would, therefore, have to raise taxes and/or cut public spending to protect services.
But that simply isn’t true. In fact, it’s not even close - The Financial Times stated unequivocally in February 2014: "An independent Scotland could expect to start with healthier state finances than the rest of the UK." Scotland subsidises the UK by billions of pounds every year and has done for many decades. On the rare occasions when the UK Government is forced by Parliamentary rules to tell the truth, it admits that fact plainly.
According to figures based on published statistics from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), the facts are as follows:
- Scotland’s GDP per capita would place it 15th in the list of the world’s wealthiest (developed) countries,
- 2 places above the UK,
- and ahead of Finland, France, New Zealand, Japan, Italy, Israel, Spain, South Korea, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Chile, Turkey and Mexico.
According to the UK Government’s own GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland) figures, just over 91% of oil and gas revenues from Scottish waters goes directly to the UK Treasury. Similarly, £3 in every £4 spent on Scotch Whisky in the UK goes to the UK Treasury in excise and VAT, according to the Scotch Whisky Association. Data from HM Revenue and Customs shows spirits duty receipts for the Treasury increased by £228 million to almost £3.77 billion between February 2018 and February 2019 - up 6.4% on figures for the same period in 2017. These figures for just two key areas of Scotland’s own GDP (Gross Domestic Product) show that Scotland derives very little tax benefit from two of its key industries whilst, at the same time, Scotland’s budget continues to be cut by Westminster.
In addition, the UK Government failed to invest a single penny of Scotland’s oil resources into a sovereign wealth fund as Norway did. So, unlike Norway, an independent country with a smaller population than Scotland which now has the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world at over US$1 trillion, Scotland has nothing to show for more than five decades of oil. Scotland has many other growing sectors such as:
- Financial Services - £15 billion
- Technology and Engineering - £4.7 billion
- Aerospace - £4.6 billion
- Creative Industries - £3.7 billion
- Tourism - £3.7 billion
- Life Sciences - £1.3 billion
- Textiles - £0.35 billion
- Chemical Sciences - £0.89 billion
Source: Scottish Development International
Scotland's natural resource
base for renewable energy is 'extraordinary' by European and even global standards
Oil and Renewables
The UK government and the UK-based parties continued to talk down Scotland’s oil wealth today, just like they talked it down and hid the truth from the moment the oil was discovered in the 1970s.
Both Labour and Conservative politicians said at that time that the oil would run out by the late 1980s and they’ve been constantly predicting its end ever since.
Professor Sir Donald Mackay, an economic adviser to the UK government for 25 years, said that Westminster’s figures were underestimating the true value of Scotland’s oil by £8 billion a year. Industry experts believe it’s likely that there are large new deposits yet to be found, including off the west coast, which oil companies have been forbidden from exploring until now because of the presence of Trident submarines in the area.
The UK and Iran are the only two countries in the world to discover oil and NOT set up an oil fund for the future. Norway only set up its oil fund in 1990 and it has over US$1 trillion in assets including 1.3% of global stocks and shares, making it the world's largest sovereign wealth fund. Despite global attempts to reduce fossil fuel dependence, the future will still be bright. Scotland is richly blessed with the potential for clean renewable energy which will last forever.
Investing some of the proceeds from oil in wind, wave, tidal and hydro power over the coming decades will ensure Scotland stays a very wealthy country for centuries to come.
The production of renewable energy in Scotland is an issue that has come to the fore in technical, economic and political terms during the opening years of the 21st century.
The natural resource base for renewable energy is extraordinary by European and even global standards, with the most important potential sources being wind, wave and tide. At the start of 2019, Scotland had 11.0 gigawatts (GW) of installed renewable electricity capacity. Renewable electricity generation in Scotland was 26,708 GWh in 2018, making up 74% of gross electricity consumption. Scottish renewable generation makes up approximately 25% of total UK renewable generation. In 2015, Scotland exported over 28.9 per cent of generation.
In 2015, Scotland generated 59% of its electricity consumption through renewable sources, exceeding the country's goal of 50% renewable energy by 2015. Moving forward, the Scottish Government's energy plan calls for 100% of electricity consumption to be generated through renewable sources by 2020 and 50% of total energy consumption (including transportation) by 2030.
Continuing improvements in engineering and economics are enabling more of the renewable resources to be utilised. Fears regarding peak oil and climate change have driven the subject high up the political agenda and are also encouraging the use of various biofuels.
Although the finances of many projects remain either speculative or dependent on market incentives, it is probable that there has been a significant and, in all likelihood, long-term change, in the underpinning economics. In August 2019, a new recycling and renewable energy centre was opened in Scotland at Polmadie.